I will not lay claims to trades i did not publish here but here are some things to chew on
these are the main things i watch for macro swing trades...basically i like to wait for extremes and take the other side of the trade
First the McClellan which i view as one of the best indicators out there...it really helps to catch tops and bottoms...you can see how well it worked in nov. and also topped out in early Jan...
Now the daily stochs on the spy
i expect some follow through on this move...it will not come all at once and nothing goes in a straight line but we do have a rather large gap to fill that might act as a magnet
Here Is a more detailed 15min 5 day that i use as a primary chart everyday so it has more detailed s/r levels that i have added over the months as the become important
Now the one thing that gives me pause about this bounce is the put call never spiked to areas of previous significant bottoms
Likely this means less shorts are in the market and as you can see today put/call is back below one which again gives me pause...shhh dont tell Chris Cox or Jim Cramer but having a ton of put buyers/shorts in the market simply will add fuel to a rally as they are preloaded bids...usually it is only after shorts get shaken out that the real tankage begins...so I would say for this rally to continue we will need true believers & organic buyers...perhaps the double bottom perception will aid in sucking in new bulls
I believe odds favor continuation in the mid term (say like a week or so) and i still have some spy calls left...looking at the spoos overnight we are down about 10 handles below the cash close...but from most of what i look at we are still near/mid term oversold...we will not go straight up but i will be watching near term trendlines closely and prolly have a bias to add to long positions on weakness although I am not super aggresive as a long...beware tho we do have econ data coming thursday and friday which also worries me a bit
I am going to try to update this blog everyday and use it as a way to clarify my positions/thoughts on the market
3 comments:
arrrgh. I had much to say, but the more I thought about it, it was crap.
Short term = day to a week, I haven't done much of that lately, but will keep more aware of your points and try to get involved.
When Boom speaks I guess is good, Timmy lets out a little leak I guess is not so bad either. FuckTard Obama could eventually kill a good chunk of the Market.
My longer term thoughts (from now until 1 qtr earnings start) is to set new lows The McClellan summation index keeps falling then so does the index. Some of the other Indicators are similarly positioned as Sep, Oct. MACD, Stoch, OBV and Money Flow. Only thing I can say to counter that is that we are at support level. And also not the entire market is setting new lows based on more realistic PE's?
Not that I have looked real hard or my current holdings are examples of the outperformers, that's kind of what I want to look for on the bullish side.
what time frames are you looking at on your stochs etc??? weekly?
I agree with you about eventually going lower although i am not sure of timeframe...in no way do i think this is a bottom...just a sort of tradeable bottom...the nh/nl has been decreasing on flushes...today i think it was like 160 nl's or something on the nyse...yesterday around 300 i think...in novemeber that chit was over 1000 nl's one day...
i dont use the summation index so much as the actual oscillator itself
here is another place you can get the oscillator though it seems on slightly different scale
http://www.mcoscillator.com/Data.html
all in all i thought today was sorta constructive to the bull case short term (like a week or so)...i will make a post later about it
longer term tho i fully expect us to crack the 740 area just dont know when
Crap! I should have made reference to May July stochas. The Sep-Oct was too choppy for that. I look at the daily settings for the time frame.
http://i267.photobucket.com/albums/ii306/simjett/MayJulyStochas.png
But looking at the stochas and the money flow for the may july period, they rode the oversold bottom for 2 months....
yeah the mcclellan summation is the "longer" term money flow, whereas the oscillator is shorter term.
2-6 weeks before Timmy etches in stone the "solution" to the bank mess?? Which coincides with 1st qtr earnings. Between now and then I think we chop around and finally converge on whatever is fair / realistic S&P value....hmmmmm
Will Eastern Europe implode before then?
I'll email that pic as well just in case to blurry for photobucket
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