Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Another Crazy Day

First a Video for your Enjoyment from Tim Knight



I don't know if I am viewing things through rose colored glasses (something few have rarely accused me of recently) or what...i just sort of felt that today was a constructive day for a short term bullish case...we put in a set of higher highs and higher lows...we managed to get the put call to tick up a bit (although still below 1) and in the end all we got was a baby doji...notice we failed right at the 78.2 level i had previously mentioned but more importantly we held the 75.7 ish area and managed significant bounces off it...sure i would have loved to see us break that 78.2 level but hey...i continue to believe in the short term the odds favor a continued upside



here is another fun chart to look at that also helps to mark significant market events...



Anyway these are just my feelings and interpretations of the odds...I will not get married to this bullish short-term thesis rather if the market tells me I am wrong then i will cut and run...

Remember we got jobs # tomorrow...per bloomy consensus is 625k with range of 595-671

Friday we have GDP...I do think though that BamBam and Turbo Tax need to use this time quickly to come out with a viable plan...I find it disgusting that the stress test results will not be made public, yet they will be taking the public's funds to recap these insolvent pigs AGAIN...but yeah its change right...anyway i also heard that worst case scenario for the test is using unemp at 10%...i do believe it gets worse than that...they are also assuming a home price fall of 20%...from where i do not know...we have huge problems not only in the us but also ROW so i will try not to overstay my boolish welcome...

if you wish to read up on the ROW (well in this case EUR GBP RUS problems here is a quick thing i put together for the LIONscammer (errr spammer) forum a week or so ago

http://www.thelion.com/bin/forum.cgi?tf=team_teflon4x&msg=331&cmd=r&t=

and a video of spanish ghost town

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