Is the (CRE) still being played? SPG vs ViNO

CMBX spreads continue widening. Pundit chatter increasing on the situation.

Charts on SPG and VNO not much different. SPG is a little weaker with the "flat" OBV. Resistance @ 40, but is also a up trending pennant. Was this a May or June play?

edit 04/09: Updated chart showing "divergence" of the Acc/Dist and the OBV. Not a call to arms, but the OBV can signal a change is coming. Market is full of tards so it's hard to go against the grain at the moment.

Resistance for SPG @ 41ish, not 40ish.

Puts are expensive.

That was then, this is now. Now what?

Following up to the McClellan where are you. Uhhhhhh....Where are we? A good bull market would see the summation index stay above the zero line. Obviously the "pullback" is in play. Question is how far to pullback.

Haven't done much of anything other than a little strangling of the TBT . Will see what tomorrow brings

Mr. McClellan! Where are you?

Ah! There you are. Working off a lil' of the overbought condition.
It could mickey mouse around those levels, go higher or lower.
Who knows. Either way, when it reaches ob/os again, I'll play it again.
Many other indicators / oscillators are saying same thing. Some times you win, sometimes not. This play is still in the early innings, could still go the desired way. There will be a cutoff time to bail or not to bail. (Hopefully don't throw it all away) Will evaluate day to day. I try to keep these plays (xlb) small after any adds. Not there yet, but probably won't add more. The spy64 was an earlier play added to for it to tag along. Going up in smoke tho.

edit: 3/25/09 Game called due to rain. Closed all long puts; GLD, XLB, SPY. Will just deal with covered calls on the TBT & UYM. Now watch these tards sneak back on to the field.

Turbo Timmy Rocket Fuel??

I dont really know what to make of this just yet...I am sorta just waiting...I had decent short positions and while I took some gains friday it was not what I should have so I woke up a lil poorer this morning

anyway it seems many people are liking this and buying calls...

All Securities Time Calls Puts Total ISEE 09:50 109210 41040 150250 266

All Equities Only Calls Puts Total ISEE 70837 25967 96804 273

All Indices & ETFs Only Calls Puts Total ISEE 38371 15048 53419 255

to add insult to injury existing home sales just came in hot...wow...party on garth

Three Excellent Takes on New Plan

Excerpt from the wonderful Zero Hedge

"

Geithner's Put has just been transformed to Geithner's All In. Is this vaguely reminiscent of what the rating agencies were doing: excel models which would crash if one tried to assume a reduction in housing values?

So in a nutshell:

1. The government is opening up the tax money spigot for market intermediary vehicles (hedge funds and other PPIFs or public-private investment funds) to buy up virtually all toxic assets with no accounting for default risk or loss assumptions, on the bet asset prices (i.e.the market) will go nowhere but up from this point onward. This is a huge gamble as macro economic conditions indicate we are nowhere near a bottom.
2. PPIFs use taxpayer provided leverage to agree with the Treasury that this is, indeed, the market bottom.
3. If this, gasp, is not the real bottom, hedge fund losses are limited as the TALF is non-recourse and non-remargining in nature and PPIF first-loss downside is at worst roughly in the 10% ballpark (of course they get to keep the spoils if the ploy succeeds), all the while no collateral has to be posted.
4. Banks and other companies offload all their toxic assets to these leveraged vehicles.
5. In the meantime the FASB is adjusting accounting rules to make sure that whatever assets remain can take advantage of Hummer-size FAS 115 loopholes and mark them at par.
6. Also in the meantime, the FDIC is buying up non-securitized toxic products (whole loans), and providing government backstopped capital to banks via the TLGP, all the while Sheila Bair is complaining that the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) is at or near zero.
7. Investors, whose deposits currently have no statutorily-required insurance as per the above point, are supposed to believe that banks are healthy, the accounting opacity is the new transparency, that the soon to be $15 trillion in total new bailout-related government debt and guarantees is sustainable as China bails and the Fed is left to purchases it own treasuries, that the FDIC will restore its DIF from fees banks pay for TLGP issues (even though banks will soon be able to issue debt cheaper in the Eurodollar market, until such time as LIBOR spikes again), and are expected to buy up equities and fixed income securities
8. As more and more buy into this all is good "new-age bull market" rally, the PPIFs will suddenly decide to sell off their resecuritized toxic garbage at a profit to themselves, people will ask just what these toxic legacy assets are really worth (again) and the whole system will crash once more, this time with the implicit guarantee of tens of trillions of US debt.

This is, of course, just one perspective. What is certain is that between Bernanke's TSY actions earlier this week, and Geithner's launch into TALF 2.0 (which is essentially stopping short of outright purchasing of bonds and equities), the administration has gone all in on selling its vision for the future to the U.S. taxpayer-cum-investor. If the pitch is unsuccessful, look out below.

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/

FROM YVES AT NAKED CAPITALISM

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/03/investor-on-private-public-partnership.html

and lastly from of all people Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman
March 21, 2009, 7:12 am
Despair over financial policy

The Geithner plan has now been leaked in detail. It’s exactly the plan that was widely analyzed — and found wanting — a couple of weeks ago. The zombie ideas have won.

The Obama administration is now completely wedded to the idea that there’s nothing fundamentally wrong with the financial system — that what we’re facing is the equivalent of a run on an essentially sound bank. As Tim Duy put it, there are no bad assets, only misunderstood assets. And if we get investors to understand that toxic waste is really, truly worth much more than anyone is willing to pay for it, all our problems will be solved.

To this end the plan proposes to create funds in which private investors put in a small amount of their own money, and in return get large, non-recourse loans from the taxpayer, with which to buy bad — I mean misunderstood — assets. This is supposed to lead to fair prices because the funds will engage in competitive bidding.

But it’s immediately obvious, if you think about it, that these funds will have skewed incentives. In effect, Treasury will be creating — deliberately! — the functional equivalent of Texas S&Ls in the 1980s: financial operations with very little capital but lots of government-guaranteed liabilities. For the private investors, this is an open invitation to play heads I win, tails the taxpayers lose. So sure, these investors will be ready to pay high prices for toxic waste. After all, the stuff might be worth something; and if it isn’t, that’s someone else’s problem.

Or to put it another way, Treasury has decided that what we have is nothing but a confidence problem, which it proposes to cure by creating massive moral hazard.

This plan will produce big gains for banks that didn’t actually need any help; it will, however, do little to reassure the public about banks that are seriously undercapitalized. And I fear that when the plan fails, as it almost surely will, the administration will have shot its bolt: it won’t be able to come back to Congress for a plan that might actually work.

What an awful mess.

Got to Post these (seperated at birth)

and





Hat tip to Tfer's

Glad these guys are not running my money

Oh wait damn they are running something else...

Just want to re-visit this post from late FEB i made

================================================
"First the ROSE colored glasses obama's budget and econ team is wearing
[original budget assumptions]
..................
Unemp figures

09 8.1
10 7.9
11 7.1
12 6.0
13 5.2
14 5.0
15 5.0
16 5.0

Per budget estimate

REAL GDP:

2008 1.30
2009 (1.20)
2010 3.20
2011 4.00
2012 4.60
2013 4.20

10 YEAR Treasury
'08 3.7%
09 2.8
10 4.0
11 4.8
12 5.1
13 5.2
14 5.2
15 5.2
16 5.2
===================================

okay so note now we are basically over 8.1...real GDP is way off and only reason they are right "so far" on cost of funds is that ben provided them a sticksave...

so today they come out with this

"WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. economic and federal budget outlook for the next two years is significantly worse than it was two months ago, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Friday.
The latest forecast shows the economy contracting 1.5% this year, with the unemployment rate rising to 9.4% later in the year. The economy will bounce back next year, growing at a 4.1% pace, in part because of the economic stimulus approved last month and "very aggressive actions by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury" to revive the financial system, the agency said. Read more.
The $787 billion economic stimulus will likely boost gross domestic product by between 1.1 percentage points and 3.4 percentage points, and create between 1.2 million and 3.6 million, the CBO said.
"The current recession, which began in December 2007, took a sudden and severe turn for the worst late last year," the CBO said. The output gap -- the difference between what the economy produces and what it could produce -- will widen an average 7% over the next two years. The output will persist through 2014 despite above-trend growth in 2010 and 2011.
That wide output gap would mean unemployment will stay high and inflation will remain low for years. And it would mean more red ink for the federal government.
The latest baseline forecast [assuming current law] shows a deficit of $1.7 trillion this year, or 11.9% of gross domestic product, and $1.14 trillion in 2010, or 7.9% of GDP.
If President Barack Obama's budget proposals are adopted, the deficit would rise to $1.8 trillion, or 13.1% of GDP, this year and $1.4 trillion, or 9.6% of GDP, in 2010. Over the next 10 years, the president's budget plans would add about $4.8 trillion to the total debt.
White House Budget Director Peter Orszag said the new forecast wouldn't change the administration's budget priorities or tactics. He said the Obama administration still hopes to spend money in the coming years on health care, education clean energy to boost long-term productivity.
Republicans said Obama's budget is unaffordable.
"Our debt will increase to shocking levels that are simply unsustainable and will devastate future economic opportunities for our children and grandchildren," said Sen. Judd Gregg, R-N.H., the leading Republican on the budget committee, who accepted and then backed out of Obama's nomination as commerce secretary"

===============================

seriously if some retard blogger like myself can tell you that their #'s were cooked in the first place, and they were using wildly off base assumptions, what does this say about our fearless leaders...and these are the people we look to to fix this problem, these are the people that run our country...On the other hand they do have quite a legacy to live up to

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Paulson

in the words of GWB

"fool me once shame on you...errr fool me cant get fooled again"